Greetings Providers:

A line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to move through North Georgia early tomorrow morning with some redevelopment possible in Central Georgia late tomorrow morning and South Georgia tomorrow afternoon. Some storms could be strong to severe, with brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts possible north of the I-85 corridor tomorrow morning. 

A severe weather outbreak is expected across the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening, where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5). Long-track, strong/violent tornadoes are expected well to the north and west of Georgia. These storms will weaken significantly and form a broken line before reaching Northwest Georgia between 4-6 AM tomorrow. The line should continue to weaken as it moves through Metro Atlanta between 6-10 AM but could redevelop across Central and South Georgia during the afternoon. What remains of the line should exit Georgia by tomorrow evening. 

SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather in Northwest Georgia tonight. Brief tornadoes and damaging winds gusts will be possible generally north of I-85 as the line moves through early tomorrow morning. SPC has also issued a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across much of Central and South Georgia for any redevelopment of storms tomorrow afternoon. The tornado risk will be very low tomorrow afternoon, but damaging winds and large hail will be possible in any strong/severe storms.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast for tonight. Even though the timing of the line is very similar to that of the line that moved through Northwest Georgia early last Saturday morning, this is a different system with a different setup. Instability will be somewhat low, and the strongest wind shear may not align with the line of storms as it moves into Georgia. However, there should be enough wind shear to support embedded supercells within the line of storms early Saturday morning.

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected across North Georgia over the next 48 hours, with less than an inch possible across the rest of Georgia. This will be a quick moving system, so widespread flash flooding is not expected, but with already moist soils across the state, any areas of heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flooding issues.

Overview:

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move out ahead of a cold front late tonight and approach far NW Georgia before sunrise. The actual cold front will move through north and central Georgia during the day on Saturday. The current timing is based on several high-resolution models and is subject to minor changes.  

Between 4AM and 6AM Saturday Morning (Far NW Georgia):

A broken line of thunderstorms will approach NW Georgia. A few of the storms could be strong to severe. 

• The primary severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts.
• A brief tornado is also possible.

Between 6AM and 10AM Saturday Morning (ATL metro and Athens):

The line of showers and thunderstorms may weaken slightly as it moves across metro Atlanta and Athens. The potential for an isolated strong or severe storm will still exist. The line is currently forecast to be south of the Interstate 85 corridor by 10AM. 

• The primary severe weather hazard will be isolated damaging wind gusts.

Between 10AM and 2PM Saturday (along and south of Columbus to Macon):

The line of storms may begin to intensify again as it moves across central portions of Georgia. There will be plenty of surface-based instability across this area for storms to become strong or even severe during the late morning and early afternoon. The line should exit the area between 3PM and 4PM. 

• The primary severe weather hazard will be damaging wind gusts.